Edge Detection Skill

Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.

Commands

Scan for Edge

/edge /edge politics /edge fed

Compare Specific Market

/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds /edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi

Kelly Calculator

/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000

probability, decimal odds, bankroll

/edge kelly 55 2.5

55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll

Data Sources

Political

• 538/Silver Bulletin - Election models

• RealClearPolitics - Polling averages

• Betting Odds - Pinnacle, offshore books

• PredictIt - Alternative market prices

Economic

• CME FedWatch - Rate probabilities

• Bloomberg Consensus - Economist forecasts

• Treasury Yields - Implied expectations

Sports

• Vegas Lines - Sharp money indicators

• ESPN FPI - Power rankings

• Historical Models - ELO ratings

Examples

User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels

User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence

User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll

Output Format

🎯 EDGE DETECTED

Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026" Platform: Polymarket

Current Price: 23¢

External Sources: • CME FedWatch: 41% • Bloomberg Consensus: 38% • Historical base rate: 35%

Estimated Fair Value: 38¢ Edge: +15¢ (+65%) Confidence: Medium

Kelly Suggestion: • Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll • Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll