Research Skill
Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing /baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3% /baserate supreme court overturning precedent
Resolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]
Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
Research Areas
Political Markets
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Incumbent win rates by office type
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Primary prediction accuracy
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Polling vs outcome correlations
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Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
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Fed rate decision patterns
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Recession indicator accuracy
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Inflation forecast track records
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Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
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Historical upset frequencies
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Weather event base rates
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Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS
Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection
Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)
Key Factors: • Approval < 45%: 23% lose • Major scandal: 31% lose • Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose • First-term incumbent: 12% lose
Relevant Markets: • Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current) • Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)
Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report