Scenario Planning

Core principle: The future is uncertain. Scenario planning doesn't try to predict which future will happen — it maps a set of plausible futures and tests strategies against each. A robust strategy performs reasonably well across multiple scenarios. A fragile strategy only works if one specific future occurs.

The Core Process

Step 1: Define the Decision or Strategy

What are we planning for?

• What time horizon? (6 months / 2 years / 5 years)
• What decision needs to be made now?
• What would "good" look like across different futures?

Step 2: Identify Key Uncertainties

What are the 2–3 most important factors that are both:

• Highly uncertain (we genuinely don't know how they'll unfold)
• Highly impactful (they would significantly change what the right strategy is)

These are the scenario axes — the dimensions along which futures differ most.

Avoid certainties (things that will definitely happen) and minor factors. Focus on the pivotal unknowns.

Step 3: Build the Scenarios

From the key uncertainties, construct 3–4 distinct, internally consistent futures. Each scenario should be:

• Plausible: Not science fiction — could actually happen
• Distinct: Each scenario is meaningfully different from the others
• Challenging: At least one scenario is uncomfortable for the current plan

Common scenario structures:

Two-axis matrix (for two key uncertainties):

         High market adoption
              |
Slow tech  ──┼── Fast tech
 change       |     change
              |
         Low market adoption

This generates 4 quadrant scenarios.

Three narrative scenarios:

• Expected: The future most people are implicitly planning for
• Optimistic: Key uncertainties resolve favorably
• Pessimistic: Key uncertainties resolve adversarially
• Wild card: A low-probability, high-impact disruption

Step 4: Stress-Test the Strategy

For each scenario:

• Does the current strategy work well / adequately / poorly?
• What would need to change in the strategy for it to work in this scenario?
• What's the cost of being wrong about which scenario occurs?

Step 5: Identify Robust Actions

Find actions that perform well across multiple scenarios — these are the highest-confidence moves regardless of which future occurs.

Also find hedging options — small bets that preserve flexibility and cost little in the expected scenario but pay off in unlikely ones.

Output Format

🌐 Key Uncertainties

📖 The Scenarios

For each scenario (3–4 total):

Scenario Name (give it a memorable name)

• Description: 2–3 sentences painting the picture of this future
• Key conditions: What's true in this world?
• Probability estimate: Rough likelihood (should sum to ~100% across scenarios)
• Key signals: What early indicators would tell us we're in this scenario?

🧪 Strategy Stress Test

🏆 Robust Actions

Actions that make sense across most or all scenarios:

• [Action 1] — works because [reason across scenarios]
• [Action 2] — works because [reason across scenarios]

🎯 Scenario-Specific Actions

If a particular scenario becomes likely, what additional actions should be taken?

🚨 Fragility Assessment

• Which scenario would the current plan handle worst?
• What's the single assumption the plan most depends on?
• What's the cheapest hedge against the worst scenario?

Scenario Planning Pitfalls

• Too many scenarios: 3–4 is ideal. More becomes unmanageable.
• Scenarios too similar: Each must be meaningfully distinct — different enough to require different strategies.
• Anchoring on the expected scenario: Give real attention to uncomfortable scenarios, not just the comfortable one.
• No early warning signals: Every scenario needs leading indicators — how do we know we're in it before it's too late to adapt?
• Planning for the scenario, not the strategy: The goal isn't to predict which scenario occurs. It's to build a strategy resilient enough to handle whichever one does.

Thinking Triggers

• "What are we implicitly assuming about the future in this plan?"
• "What's the world where this strategy fails completely — and how likely is it?"
• "What would we do differently if we knew we were in Scenario C?"
• "What are the early signals that would tell us which future we're heading into?"
• "What's the cheapest move that protects us in the bad scenarios without sacrificing the good ones?"

Example Applications

• Product roadmap: What if AI commoditizes our core feature? What if regulation changes the market? What if a major platform shifts behavior?
• Architecture decision: What if traffic grows 10x? What if the third-party API sunsets? What if the team doubles?
• Business strategy: What if the funding environment tightens? What if the key competitor undercuts pricing? What if adoption is 5x faster than projected?
• Agent pipeline design: What if LLM costs drop 90%? What if context windows become unlimited? What if a single agent becomes capable enough to replace the pipeline?