Systems Thinking Evaluation Skill

Apply a rigorous systems lens to evaluate what's working, what isn't, and why in any system — technical, organizational, product, or process.

When to Use This Skill

Trigger this skill whenever the user asks you to:

• Evaluate or assess a system, product, process, strategy, or architecture

• Understand why something isn't working as expected

• Identify bottlenecks, failure points, or risks

• Suggest where to intervene for the most impact

• Review a design or plan before execution

Core Mental Models to Apply

1. Identify the System Boundary

• What's inside the system (in scope)?

• What's outside (environment, dependencies, constraints)?

• Where does the system begin and end?

2. Stocks and Flows

• Stocks: What accumulates over time? (users, debt, trust, knowledge, bugs, revenue)

• Flows: What increases or decreases those stocks? (acquisition, churn, learning, entropy)

• Where are flows blocked, broken, or leaking?

3. Feedback Loops

• Reinforcing loops (R): Self-amplifying dynamics — virtuous cycles or vicious spirals

• Example: More users → more content → more users (growth flywheel)

• Example: More bugs → less trust → fewer contributors → more bugs

• Balancing loops (B): Self-correcting dynamics — goal-seeking behaviors

• Example: High load → auto-scale → stable performance

• Example: User complaints → support → resolution → satisfaction

• Ask: Which loops dominate the system's current behavior?

4. Delays

• Where are there time lags between cause and effect?

• Delays often cause oscillation, overcorrection, or invisible failures

• Example: Hiring takes 3 months → team overloads → burnout → more attrition

5. System Archetypes (common failure patterns)

Match observed behavior to known archetypes:

Archetype Pattern Signal

Limits to Growth Growth hits a constraint and stalls Plateau despite investment

Fixes that Fail Quick fix creates new problems Recurring issues after "solutions"

Shifting the Burden Symptomatic fixes erode fundamental ones Team always firefighting

Tragedy of the Commons Shared resources are depleted Quality/performance degrades over time

Escalation Competing actors amplify each other Bidding wars, arms races

Drifting Goals Performance gap closed by lowering standards "Good enough" keeps declining

Accidental Adversaries Well-meaning actors undermine each other Misaligned incentives between teams

6. Leverage Points

Rank interventions by impact (from lowest to highest leverage):

• Numbers (parameters, budgets, quotas) — low leverage

• Buffer sizes and stock capacities

• Flow rates and delays

• Feedback loop strength

• Information flows (who has access to what, when)

• Rules and incentives

• Goals of the system

• Power to change the system's structure

• Mindsets and paradigms — highest leverage

Evaluation Output Format

When evaluating a system, structure the response as follows:

🟢 Where the System Works

• Identify functioning feedback loops, healthy stocks, aligned incentives

• Call out genuine strengths (not to be polite — to understand what to protect)

🔴 Where the System Breaks Down

• Point to broken loops, leaking flows, missing feedback, or misaligned incentives

• For each issue, name the archetype if one applies

• Identify delays that hide the problem

⚠️ Key Risks and Failure Modes

• What could cause the system to tip into a bad equilibrium?

• What reinforcing loop could go negative?

• What constraint will be hit next?

🎯 High-Leverage Interventions

• Ranked list of where to intervene

• For each: what changes, what loop or flow it affects, expected result

• Flag quick fixes that might backfire (Fixes that Fail archetype)

📊 System Diagram (optional, when helpful)

Describe or sketch a causal loop diagram in text:

[Variable A] → (+) [Variable B] → (+) [Variable A] ← Reinforcing loop R1 [Variable A] → (+) [Variable C] → (-) [Variable A] ← Balancing loop B1

Tone and Approach

• Be direct about what's broken — systems evaluation is not diplomacy

• Use concrete examples tied to the user's specific context

• Prioritize systemic causes over symptoms — don't just describe what's wrong, explain why the system produces that outcome

• When a problem "keeps coming back," suspect a reinforcing loop or Shifting the Burden archetype

• Always suggest at least one high-leverage intervention — not just diagnosis

Example Application Triggers

• "Evaluate our onboarding funnel" → apply stocks/flows to conversion, identify where users leak out and why

• "Why does our team keep missing deadlines?" → look for delays, Shifting the Burden, workload dynamics

• "Is this architecture scalable?" → identify capacity limits, balancing loops under load, missing circuit breakers

• "Assess our growth strategy" → find reinforcing flywheels, limits to growth constraints, escalation risks

• "What's wrong with our deploy process?" → trace flow from commit to production, find delays, balancing loops

• "Should we change our pricing model?" → map revenue stocks, customer feedback loops, competitive dynamics