Risk Management

Last updated: 2026-01-17 20:31 UTC Active patterns: 40 Total samples: 13385 Confidence threshold: 60%

Core Principles

These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:

Rule Success Rate Samples Confidence Seen

Trade count inversely correlates with pe... 95% 861 55% 1x

Trade frequency should adapt to market r... 95% 950 95% 1x

Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... 92% 157 65% 1x

Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... 92% 164 70% 1x

Trade frequency should adapt to market r... 92% 895 95% 1x

Trade frequency should adapt to market r... 92% 855 95% 1x

Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... 92% 328 79% 2x

Optimal trade frequency in trending bull... 90% 543 75% 1x

Optimal trade frequency in trending bull... 88% 1088 79% 2x

Close losing positions proactively with ... 88% 184 75% 1x

Close short positions immediately when m... 88% 675 95% 1x

Close losing positions proactively with ... 88% 368 79% 2x

High confidence (>0.8) should require co... 85% 20 50% 1x

Close losing positions proactively with ... 85% 182 65% 1x

Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... 85% 321 70% 1x

Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, E... 85% 494 79% 2x

Close losing positions proactively with ... 85% 100 95% 1x

Close losing positions proactively with ... 85% 368 95% 1x

Optimal trade frequency in trending mark... 82% 535 65% 1x

Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, E... 82% 348 70% 1x

Close positions near breakeven to free m... 82% 390 79% 2x

Explicit validation step before trade ex... 80% 100 95% 1x

Close positions near breakeven to free m... 80% 144 95% 1x

Diversify across assets rather than conc... 78% 248 65% 1x

Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... 78% 125 75% 1x

Trade frequency should adapt to market r... 78% 507 95% 1x

Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... 75% 160 95% 1x

Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... 74% 285 99% 2x

Close positions near breakeven to free m... 73% 278 99% 2x

High confidence (>0.8) should require co... 70% 20 40% 1x

Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 rewa... 65% 139 45% 1x

Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... 65% 121 65% 1x

Explicit validation step ('Validate_trad... 65% 176 95% 1x

Close losing positions proactively with ... 60% 189 95% 1x

Explicit validation step before trade ex... 45% 182 95% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 35% 191 95% 1x

2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fai... 35% 173 95% 1x

Explicit validation step ('Validate_trad... 35% 195 95% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 30% 171 95% 1x

Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 rewa... 15% 155 55% 1x

Top Risk Rules

Trade count inversely correlates with performance in flat markets: 3-6 trades = ~$0 PnL, 70-180 trades = -$55 to -$141, 150-225 trades = -$325 to -$581

• Success rate: 95%

• Based on 861 observations

• Confidence: 55% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-13

Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: mixed/choppy markets require 0-10 trades/24h maximum. 201 trades = -$360.24, 2 trades = -$0.29, 0 trades = $0.00.

• Success rate: 95%

• Based on 950 observations

• Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-17

Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk per trade within limits' and 'portfolio risk is within limits' - this validation step correlates with +$1349 PnL.

• Success rate: 92%

• Based on 157 observations

• Confidence: 65% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-14

Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk/reward is 2:1 with 2% equity risk' and 'trade validation passed', achieving best performance (+$1379.66).

• Success rate: 92%

• Based on 164 observations

• Confidence: 70% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-14

Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: moderate bull markets require 0-30 trades/24h maximum. Above 100 trades correlates with losses (-$50 to -$264).

• Success rate: 92%

• Based on 895 observations

• Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-17

General Guidelines

• Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade

• Use stop-losses on every position

• Reduce position size in high volatility regimes

• Don't add to losing positions

Confidence Guide

Confidence Interpretation

90%+ High confidence - strong historical support

70-90% Moderate confidence - use with other signals

60-70% Low confidence - consider as one input

<60% Experimental - needs more data

This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.