Market Sizing

Calculate market opportunity with TAM/SAM/SOM and timing analysis.

Canvas Files

• Reads: 00.mode.md (VENTURE/BOOTSTRAP affects size requirements)

• Reads: 02.constraints.md (budget, team for SOM calculation)

• Reads: 01.context.md (industry beliefs to validate)

• Writes: 03.opportunity.md

Prerequisites

Before sizing market:

• strategy/canvas/00.mode.md must exist (mode affects TAM requirements)

If missing:

"Market sizing requires business mode from 00.mode.md.

VENTURE mode needs TAM >$1B for institutional investors. BOOTSTRAP mode can target smaller, profitable niches.

Run fnd-architect agent first."

Process

Step 1: Load Context

Read from canvas:

• Mode from 00.mode.md → determines size thresholds

• Constraints from 02.constraints.md → informs SOM calculation

• Beliefs from 01.context.md → hypotheses to validate

Step 2: Calculate TAM (Total Addressable Market)

Use BOTH methods, compare results:

Top-Down Method:

TAM = Industry size from reports × relevant segment %

• Source: Gartner, Forrester, IBISWorld, Statista

• Cite the report and year

Bottom-Up Method:

TAM = Total potential customers × Average revenue per customer

• Count: How many could possibly buy?

• Price: What would they pay annually?

Validation: If methods differ >50%, investigate why.

Step 3: Calculate SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

Apply filters to TAM:

SAM = TAM × Geographic filter × Segment filter × Technical filter

Filter Type Example Typical Reduction

Geographic US only 30-50% of global

Segment SMB only 20-40% of total

Technical Cloud-ready 50-80% of segment

Vertical E-commerce Varies

Document each filter with rationale.

Step 4: Calculate SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

Apply realistic capture based on constraints from 02.constraints.md:

SOM = SAM × Realistic market share %

Timeline New Entrant With Traction Established

Year 1 0.5-1% 1-3% 3-5%

Year 3 2-5% 5-10% 10-15%

Year 5 5-10% 10-20% 15-25%

Constraint adjustments:

• Limited budget → lower channel reach → lower SOM

• Small team → slower sales velocity → lower SOM

• Short runway → less time to penetrate → lower SOM

Step 5: Assess Market Timing

Why Now? Framework:

Factor Question Signals

Technology What's newly possible? Cost drops, capability jumps

Regulation What's newly required/allowed? New laws, compliance deadlines

Behavior What habits changed? Adoption curves, search trends

Economics What's newly affordable? Price/performance improvements

Competition What gap exists? Incumbent weakness, market void

Score each factor 1-5:

Timing Score = Technology + Regulation + Behavior + Economics + Competition

Score Interpretation

20 Strong timing — move fast

15-20 Good timing — proceed

10-15 Questionable — validate further

<10 Poor timing — reconsider

Step 6: Validate Against Mode

Mode TAM Requirement SAM Requirement

VENTURE

$1B $100M

BOOTSTRAP Any (profitable niche OK)

$10M

HYBRID

$500M $50M

If below threshold, flag:

"Market size concern for [MODE] mode:

• TAM: $[X] (requirement: $[Y])

Options:

1. Expand market definition
2. Adjacent market expansion
3. Reconsider mode (switch to BOOTSTRAP)"

Step 7: Write Output

Write to strategy/canvas/03.opportunity.md using output format below.

Output Format

03. Market Opportunity

Market Size

TAM Calculation

Top-Down

• Industry: [Name]
• Total size: $[X] ([Source])
• Relevant segment: [X]% = $[X]

Bottom-Up

• Potential customers: [N]
• Average deal size: $[X]/year
• TAM: [N] × $[X] = $[X]

Reconciliation

[Explain any difference between methods]

SAM Derivation

SOM Assumptions

• Year 1 share: [X]% = $[X]
• Year 3 share: [X]% = $[X]
• Rationale: [Why these shares are achievable]

Why Now

Market Trends

Tailwinds

• [Trend 1]: [Impact on opportunity]
• [Trend 2]: [Impact on opportunity]

Headwinds

• [Trend 1]: [Mitigation strategy]
• [Trend 2]: [Mitigation strategy]

Market Risks

Mode Validation

Mode: [From 00.mode.md] TAM Requirement: [Met/Not Met] Recommendation: [Proceed/Expand/Reconsider]

Quality Criteria

Before finalizing, verify:

• Both TAM methods calculated and reconciled

• All SAM filters documented with rationale

• SOM based on constraints, not aspirations

• Timing score completed with evidence

• Mode validation performed

• Sources cited with years

Boundaries

• Does NOT validate customer demand (see fnd.r-scoring-problems)

• Does NOT guarantee market capture

• Does NOT predict competitor response

• Market size is estimate, not fact — cite sources

• SOM is constrained projection, not target

• Timing assessment is point-in-time, markets change

• Does NOT handle multi-market or platform economics