The Frontier of Understanding (NCTs)

"If you don't understand how to move a particular metric, then the right goal is to set a goal to increase your understanding not to move that metric." — Ravi Mehta

What It Is

Instead of blindly focusing on outcomes, teams should identify their "Frontier of Understanding." If the levers are unknown, the goal should be "Understanding Risk" (learning); if known, the goal can be "Execution Risk" (doing) or "Strategic Risk" (outcomes).

When To Use

• Quarterly planning when leadership demands metric increase

• Team has no clear hypothesis on how to achieve

• Avoiding "throwing spaghetti at the wall"

• Setting realistic, achievable goals

The Risk Levels

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ UNDERSTANDING RISK │ │ "We don't know the levers" │ │ → Goal = Insight / Learning │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ DEPENDENCY RISK │ │ "We know levers but lack tools/resources" │ │ → Goal = Unblock dependencies │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ EXECUTION RISK │ │ "We have the tools" │ │ → Goal = High velocity / Quality experiments │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ STRATEGIC RISK │ │ "We are executing well" │ │ → Goal = Verify hypothesis moves the metric │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

How To Apply

STEP 1: Identify Your Frontier └── Do we know what moves this metric? └── Have we proven the levers work?

STEP 2: Match Goal to Frontier └── Unknown levers → Learning goal └── Known levers → Execution goal └── Proven levers → Outcome goal

STEP 3: Don't Overcommit └── If in Understanding phase, don't promise revenue └── Promise insights instead

STEP 4: Move Along the Frontier └── Each quarter, advance your understanding └── Eventually you earn the right to set outcome goals

Common Mistakes

❌ Setting an outcome goal (Revenue) when in "Understanding Risk" phase

❌ "Throwing spaghetti at the wall" to hit arbitrary targets

❌ Treating all goals as equally achievable

Real-World Example

At Tinder, data showed high spending from a small group. Instead of blindly trying to grow revenue, they set a goal to understand WHY. They found these weren't rich people, but frequent travelers/salespeople. This insight led to "Tinder Platinum."

Source: Ravi Mehta, Former CPO of Tinder, Lenny's Podcast