Crisis Detector

Identify early warning signs of potential crises before they escalate through pattern recognition, signal monitoring, and risk assessment.

When to Use This Skill

• Setting up early warning systems

• Assessing crisis probability

• Training teams on signals

• Building escalation criteria

• Post-crisis prevention planning

Methodology Foundation

Based on Institute for Crisis Management research and Burson crisis frameworks, combining:

• Signal identification

• Pattern recognition

• Risk assessment matrices

• Escalation protocols

What Claude Does vs What You Decide

Claude Does You Decide

Identifies warning signals Risk tolerance

Assesses crisis probability Response resources

Creates detection criteria Escalation authority

Designs monitoring systems Communication strategy

Suggests response triggers Final action calls

Instructions

Step 1: Map Crisis Types

Crisis Categories:

Category Examples Warning Time

Operational Outage, product failure Hours to days

Reputational Executive scandal, viral complaint Minutes to hours

Legal/Regulatory Lawsuit, investigation Days to weeks

Financial Earnings miss, fraud Hours to days

Human Workplace incident, harassment Hours to days

External Natural disaster, market crash Variable

Step 2: Identify Early Signals

Signal Types:

Signal Type Examples Monitoring

Internal Employee complaints, support tickets HR, Support data

Customer Review patterns, churn spikes CX metrics

Social Mention volume, sentiment shift Social tools

Media Press inquiries, journalist interest PR inbox

Regulatory Compliance notices, audit findings Legal

Financial Payment disputes, refund requests Finance

Step 3: Build Detection Matrix

Signal Strength Assessment:

Signal Weak Moderate Strong Critical

Volume spike +25% +50% +100% +300%

Sentiment shift -10% -20% -30% -50%

Media inquiries 1 2-3 4-5 6+

Support tickets +10% +25% +50% +100%

Social influencer 10K 50K 100K 500K+

Step 4: Create Escalation Triggers

Trigger Framework:

Level Signals Present Action

Watch 1 moderate signal Monitor closely

Alert 2+ moderate or 1 strong Notify team

Warning Multiple strong signals Assemble team

Crisis Any critical signal Activate protocol

Step 5: Document and Improve

Post-Detection Review:

• How early did we detect?

• What signals did we miss?

• How accurate was assessment?

• What should we add to monitoring?

Examples

Example 1: Crisis Detection System Design

Input:

Design a crisis detection system for:

• E-commerce company (clothing)
• 500K customers
• Active on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter
• Past issue: Shipping delays during holiday

Output:

Crisis Detection System: E-Commerce Fashion

Crisis Risk Map

Early Warning Signals

P1: Shipping Delays

Leading Indicators (3-5 days before crisis):

Lagging Indicators (crisis starting):

P1: Product Quality Issue

Leading Indicators:

Lagging Indicators:

P1: Social Media Backlash

Leading Indicators:

Lagging Indicators:

Detection Dashboard

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CRISIS DETECTION DASHBOARD 🟢 NORMAL │ ├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ │ │ SHIPPING STATUS 🟢 Normal │ │ ├─ Carrier delays: 3% (threshold: 10%) │ │ ├─ Backlog: 4 hours (threshold: 24hr) │ │ └─ "Where's my order": 45 (baseline: 50) │ │ │ │ PRODUCT QUALITY 🟢 Normal │ │ ├─ Return rate: 5.2% (threshold: 10%) │ │ ├─ Quality tickets: 2 (threshold: 3+ same) │ │ └─ Photo complaints: 1 (threshold: 5) │ │ │ │ SOCIAL SENTIMENT 🟡 Watch │ │ ├─ Sentiment: -15% (threshold: -20%) │ │ ├─ Volume: +40% (threshold: +50%) │ │ └─ Influencer: None flagged │ │ │ │ SECURITY 🟢 Normal │ │ ├─ Login anomalies: Normal │ │ └─ Payment fraud: 0.3% │ │ │ └──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Escalation Matrix

Alert Routing

Holiday Season Adjustments

During high-volume periods (Nov 15 - Dec 31):

Rationale: Higher baseline expected; adjust to avoid false alerts while maintaining genuine crisis detection.

Example 2: Real-Time Crisis Assessment

Input:

Assess this situation:

• Support tickets up 80% in 2 hours
• Twitter mentions up 150%
• Hashtag #[Brand]Scam trending locally
• 3 refund requests mentioning "charged twice"
• No known system issues

Output:

Crisis Assessment: Potential Payment Issue

Alert Level: 🔴 CRISIS

Signal Analysis

Probable Cause

Most likely: Payment processing error

Evidence:

1. Multiple "charged twice" complaints
2. No known system issues rules out outage
3. Sudden spike suggests batch problem
4. #Scam hashtag = customers think fraud

Immediate Actions

Holding Statement (Draft)

We're aware some customers may have experienced duplicate charges. Our team is investigating urgently. If you've been affected, please DM us or email [support] - we'll make this right immediately.

Updates to follow shortly.

Escalation Path

Now: CTO + CFO + CMO notified +30 min: CEO briefing if not resolved +1 hour: External statement if ongoing

Crisis Trajectory

If unaddressed (next 2-4 hours):

• Hashtag goes national
• Media inquiries begin
• Trust pilot review bomb
• Social influencers amplify

If addressed quickly (next 1-2 hours):

• Contain to affected customers
• Flip narrative to "responsive company"
• Prevent media escalation
• Build goodwill through fast resolution

Resolution Checklist

• Root cause identified
• Affected customers identified
• Refunds initiated
• Proactive communication sent
• Social response deployed
• Hashtag monitoring active
• Post-incident review scheduled

Skill Boundaries

What This Skill Does Well

• Identifying early warning signals

• Creating detection frameworks

• Assessing crisis probability

• Designing escalation systems

What This Skill Cannot Do

• Access your actual systems

• Monitor in real-time

• Make response decisions

• Know your specific thresholds

Iteration Guide

Follow-up Prompts:

• "Design detection for [specific crisis type]"

• "Create escalation protocol for [scenario]"

• "What signals should we add for [risk]?"

• "How do we prevent [past crisis] from recurring?"

References

• Institute for Crisis Management

• Burson Crisis Playbook

• Harvard Business Review Crisis Research

• Edelman Trust Barometer

Related Skills

• social-listening

• Monitoring systems

• response-coordinator

• Crisis response

• reputation-recovery

• Post-crisis rebuild

Skill Metadata

• Domain: Crisis

• Complexity: Intermediate-Advanced

• Mode: centaur

• Time to Value: 2-4 hours for system design

• Prerequisites: Access to metrics, stakeholder alignment