FairFlow Campaign Calculator

Help users plan, calculate, and evaluate FairFlow liquidity mining campaigns with data-driven projections and efficiency metrics.

Philosophy

Sustainable yield beats speculation. Good liquidity mining campaigns have:

• Data-driven projections - Calculations based on realistic assumptions, not hopium

• Efficiency tracking - Cost per $1M volume, cost per $1 TVL matter more than raw spend

• EG honesty - Equilibrium Gains are market-dependent and unpredictable; model scenarios, don't guess

• Clear graduation path - Every campaign should have criteria for reducing LM dependency

• ROI focus - Fee revenue vs LM spend determines long-term viability

This skill answers three questions:

• What to spend? - LM budget to achieve target APR

• What to expect? - Projected TVL, volume, and efficiency metrics

• When to adjust? - Decision rules for scaling, maintaining, or killing campaigns

Mode Detection

Determine the operating mode based on user input:

Plan Mode (Design a new campaign):

• User says "plan a FairFlow campaign", "new campaign", "design a campaign"

• User has a pair in mind but no projections yet

• User wants help setting LM budget and targets

Analysis Mode (Calculate specific metrics):

• User says "calculate LP APR", "what's the LM APR", "estimate break-even"

• User has specific numbers and wants calculations

• User wants to understand a single metric

Review Mode (Evaluate existing campaign):

• User says "evaluate campaign", "review my campaign", "is my campaign efficient"

• User has an active campaign with actual data

• User wants to compare actuals vs projections

If unclear, ask: "Do you want to (1) plan a new campaign, (2) calculate specific metrics, or (3) review an existing campaign?"

Plan Mode

Use this when helping users design new FairFlow campaigns.

Plan Mode Overview

Inputs → APR Calculations → Efficiency Projections → EG Scenarios → Validation

Step 1: Gather Campaign Inputs

Ask (using AskUserQuestion):

Pool Configuration

• What pair? (e.g., MON/USDC)

• Which chain?

• What fee tier? (0.01%, 0.05%, 0.30%)

• Fee tier in bps? (1, 5, 30 — needed for EG adjustment calculation)

LM Configuration

• What LM token? (KNC or partner token)

• Current LM token price?

• Campaign duration? (weeks)

Targets & Competition

• What's your target TVL?

• What's the competitor APR you're competing against?

• What APR gap do you want to maintain? (+15%, +25%, etc.)

Current State

• Current TVL (if any)?

• Current daily volume (if any)?

Step 2: Calculate APR Components

Use the formulas to calculate each APR component.

See references/formulas.md for all calculation formulas.

LP Fee APR:

Daily Fee Revenue = Volume × bps LP Fee APR = (Daily Fee Revenue / TVL) × 365

LM APR (solve for LM budget):

Required LM APR = Target Total APR - LP Fee APR - EG APR (estimated) Daily LM Value = (LM APR × TVL) / 365 Daily LM Tokens = Daily LM Value / Token Price

Base APR (without EG):

Base APR = LP Fee APR + LM APR

Step 3: Model EG Scenarios

EG (Equilibrium Gains) cannot be predicted. Always present three scenarios. EG multipliers scale inversely with fee tier — lower-fee pools capture proportionally more EG relative to fees.

Fee-tier adjustment:

EG Multiplier = Scenario Base × (5 / pool_bps)

Scenario Base (at 0.05%) Adjustment When This Happens

Low 0.50 × (5 / bps) Low volatility, stable markets

Mid 1.00 × (5 / bps) Normal market conditions

High 2.00 × (5 / bps) High volatility, active arbitrage

Adjusted multipliers by fee tier:

Fee Tier bps Low Mid High

0.01% 1 2.50 5.00 10.00

0.05% 5 0.50 1.00 2.00

0.30% 30 0.08 0.17 0.33

Example at 0.01% (1 bp): If LP Fee APR = 7.30%

• Low EG: 18.25% (2.50 × 7.30%)

• Mid EG: 36.50% (5.00 × 7.30%)

• High EG: 73.00% (10.00 × 7.30%)

Example at 0.05% (5 bp): If LP Fee APR = 7.30%

• Low EG: 3.65% (0.50 × 7.30%)

• Mid EG: 7.30% (1.00 × 7.30%)

• High EG: 14.60% (2.00 × 7.30%)

Total APR by scenario:

Total APR = LP Fee APR + EG APR + LM APR

Step 4: Project Weekly Metrics

Build a weekly projection table:

Week TVL Target Volume Target Vol/TVL LP Fee APR LM APR Base APR EG Low EG Mid EG High Total (Mid) Weekly LM Cumulative LM

1

2

3

4

Step 5: Calculate Efficiency Metrics

For each week, calculate:

Metric Formula Target

LM Cost per $1M Volume Weekly LM Spend / (Weekly Volume / 1M)

< $1,000

LM Cost per $1K TVL Monthly LM Spend / (TVL / 1K)

< $50

Cost per $1 TVL Acquired Cumulative LM / (Current TVL - Starting TVL)

< $0.10

Fee Revenue Ratio Monthly Fee Revenue / Monthly LM Spend

50%

See references/benchmarks.md for efficiency targets.

Step 6: Validate Campaign

Run validation checks:

APR Gap Check:

• Is APR gap sufficient? (> 15% minimum, > 25% strong)

• Is gap maintained across all EG scenarios?

Efficiency Check:

• LM cost per $1M volume < $1,000?

• Cost per $1 TVL acquired < $0.10?

Sustainability Check:

• What Vol/TVL is needed to self-sustain without LM?

• Is that Vol/TVL realistic for this pair?

See references/decision-framework.md for decision rules.

Plan Mode Output

Produce a Campaign Plan document:

FairFlow Campaign: [PAIR]

Overview

APR Breakdown

By Week

Competitive Positioning

Efficiency Metrics

Graduation Path

• Break-even Vol/TVL: [X]
• Current projected Vol/TVL: [X]
• Path to reduce LM: [description]

Success Criteria

Weekly Review Checklist

• TVL vs target (within 20%?)
• Vol/TVL ratio (above 1.5?)
• APR gap still competitive?
• LM efficiency improving?
• External factors (competitor moves, market)?
• Decision: Scale / Maintain / Reduce / Kill

Analysis Mode

Use this when users need specific metric calculations.

Common Calculations

"What LM budget do I need for X% APR?"

Daily LM Value = (Target LM APR × TVL) / 365 Weekly LM USD = Daily LM Value × 7 Weekly LM Tokens = Weekly LM USD / Token Price

"What's my LP Fee APR?"

Daily Fee Revenue = Daily Volume × Fee Tier (as decimal) LP Fee APR = (Daily Fee Revenue / TVL) × 365

"What Vol/TVL do I need to break even?"

Required Fee APR = Target APR - Expected EG APR Vol/TVL = Required Fee APR / (Fee Tier × 365)

"Is my campaign efficient?"

LM Cost per $1M Volume = Weekly LM Spend / (Weekly Volume / 1,000,000) < $1,000 = Good, < $500 = Excellent

See references/formulas.md for the complete formula reference.

Analysis Output

Provide calculations with work shown:

Calculation: [Metric Name]

Inputs

Formula

[Formula here]

Calculation

[Step-by-step calculation]

Result

[Metric Name]: [Value]

Interpretation

[What this means, whether it's good/bad, what to do about it]

Review Mode

Use this when evaluating active campaigns against projections.

Step 1: Gather Actual Data

Ask:

Current Campaign Status

• Current TVL (actual)?

• Current daily volume (actual)?

• Weekly LM spend to date?

• Campaign week number?

Projected vs Actual

• What were your TVL projections?

• What were your volume projections?

Step 2: Calculate Variance

Metric Projected Actual Variance

TVL $X $X +/- X%

Volume $X $X +/- X%

Vol/TVL X X +/- X%

LP Fee APR X% X% +/- X%

Step 3: Apply Decision Framework

Based on actuals, recommend action:

Condition Action

TVL growth > 20% WoW AND Vol/TVL > 1.5 Scale LM +25%

TVL growth > 10% WoW AND APR gap > 20% Maintain current LM

TVL flat AND Vol/TVL > 2.0 Reduce LM -15%

TVL declining AND APR gap > 30% Diagnose external factors

TVL < 50% of target after 2 weeks Kill campaign

Vol/TVL < 0.5 for 2 consecutive weeks Kill campaign

LM Cost per $1M Volume > $2,000 Kill campaign

See references/decision-framework.md for complete decision rules.

Step 4: Check Graduation Criteria

Graduation Signal Status

Base APR (Fees + EG) > Competitor APR Can begin LM reduction

TVL stable for 4 weeks at reduced LM Continue reduction

Vol/TVL > 2.5 sustained Pool is self-sustaining

Review Output

Campaign Review: [PAIR] - Week [X]

Performance Summary

Efficiency

Decision

Recommendation: [Scale / Maintain / Reduce / Kill] Reasoning: [Why this recommendation]

Next Week Actions

1. [Action item]
2. [Action item]

Integration Points

Skill How FairFlow Calculator Connects

mkt-funnel-planner Campaign metrics feed into broader funnel tracking; LP retention is a funnel stage

mkt-initiative-planner FairFlow campaigns become initiative proposals with defined hypotheses and success criteria

When working with these skills:

• Campaign success criteria align with initiative KPIs

• LP retention metrics connect to funnel D30/D90 tracking

• Campaign budgets inform initiative resource planning

How to Work

• Show your math: Always display calculations step-by-step, not just final answers

• EG is unpredictable: Never present EG as a single number; always show Low/Mid/High scenarios

• Efficiency > raw spend: A $50K campaign that's inefficient is worse than a $10K efficient one

• Challenge unrealistic targets: If Vol/TVL assumptions are aggressive, say so

• Kill criteria matter: Every campaign needs clear conditions for stopping

• Graduation path: Always define how the campaign becomes self-sustaining

• Weekly reviews: Recommend actual vs projected comparison weekly

Anti-Patterns to Avoid

Don't Do

Present single EG projection Always show Low/Mid/High scenarios

Ignore efficiency metrics Calculate cost per $1M volume and cost per $1 TVL

Skip break-even analysis Always show what Vol/TVL is needed to self-sustain

Set targets without kill criteria Define stop conditions upfront

Assume LM continues forever Plan graduation path from day one