Discover Assumptions and Experiments

Overview

Surface the riskiest assumptions in an Opportunity Solution Tree and design the smallest tests that can prove or disprove them quickly.

Position in Workflow

Step 4 of product strategy workflow:

• /discover-outcomes

• Define outcomes

• /discover-opportunities

• Identify opportunities

• /ideate-solutions

• Explore solution concepts

• /discover-assumptions

• Validate with experiments (THIS)

Inputs (ask if missing, max 5)

• Target node(s): outcome, opportunity, or solution

• Target users/market

• Existing evidence (data, research, learnings)

• Constraints (time, budget, ethics, legal)

• Decision deadline

Assumption Types

• Desirability: Users want or value it

• Usability: Users can use it successfully

• Feasibility: We can build/deliver it

• Viability: It supports the business model

• Risk/Compliance/Ethics: It is safe and allowed

• Strategic: It aligns with goals and positioning

Workflow

• List assumptions per node

• Write assumptions as testable statements.

• Score risk

• Impact (low/medium/high) x uncertainty (low/medium/high).

• Note current evidence strength (none/weak/moderate/strong).

• Prioritize

• Select top 3-5 riskiest assumptions.

• Design experiments

• Propose 2+ tests per assumption, fastest/cheapest first.

• Define hypothesis, method, sample, success metric, and decision threshold.

• Sequence tests

• Start with tests that can invalidate assumptions quickly.

Experiment Patterns (examples)

• Customer interviews, observation, diary studies

• Survey with behavioral intent + follow-up validation

• Smoke test or landing page

• Fake-door or click-through test

• Concierge or Wizard-of-Oz pilot

• Prototype usability test

• A/B test or pricing experiment

• Limited rollout with manual operations

Output Format

Assumption Discovery

Context Summary

[1-3 sentences]

Assumptions (by node)

• Node: [Outcome/Opportunity/Solution]
  • Assumption: ... (type: desirability)
  • Evidence: ... (strength: weak)
  • Risk: impact high x uncertainty high

Top Risks

1. Assumption: ...
   • Why risky: ...

Experiments

1. Assumption: ...
   • Hypothesis: ...
   • Method: ...
   • Sample: ...
   • Success metric: ...
   • Decision threshold: ...
   • Time/cost: ...

Sequenced Plan

1. ...
2. ...

Open Questions

• ...

Next Step

If assumptions are validated, proceed to product planning.

Quick Reference

• Turn beliefs into testable statements.

• Prefer tests that can disprove the assumption fast.

• Document decision thresholds before running tests.

Common Mistakes

• Treating opinions as evidence

• Testing solutions before validating the underlying assumption

• Running expensive tests without cheap falsification attempts

• Vague hypotheses or missing thresholds