What this skill IS
This is strategic betting, not variant selection. You are choosing which class of approach to bet on — scoping the search space for variant generation. "We'll explore variants within [family X] because [reason]."
Strategizing ≠ SoTA survey. SoTA maps the landscape; strategizing bets on a region. Strategizing ≠ variant selection. Strategy scopes the family; selection picks from generated variants.
Prerequisites
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PROB-* or ANOM-* exists with acceptance spec
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SOTA-* exists (if missing: invoke /fpf-sota first)
Output
.fpf/decisions/STRAT-${CLAUDE_SESSION_ID}--<slug>.md
Constraints (quality bar)
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C1: ≥2 candidate method families evaluated
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C2: Each family assessed for admissibility against PROB-* constraints
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C3: Primary bet stated with rationale (why this family over others)
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C4: Variant generation axes defined (what will differ between variants within this family)
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C5: Invalidation conditions stated (what would cause a pivot to different family)
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C6: Links to PROB-* and SOTA-*
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C7: Scaling-Law Lens (SLL): for each family, state how it scales with more resources (compute/data/time). Minimum two measurement points (Scale-Probe) to claim a slope. Elasticity class: growing | plateau | declining. At comparable budgets, prefer the family with better scaling slopes (BLP — Bitter Lesson Preference).
Format
Strategy Card
- ID: STRAT-... Problem: PROB-... SoTA: SOTA-...
- valid_until: YYYY-MM-DD
Candidate families
| # | Family | Admissible? | Scaling (SLL) | Key risks | | F1 | ... | Y/N | growing/plateau/declining | ... | | F2 | ... | Y/N | growing/plateau/declining | ... |
Bet
Primary: [family]. Rationale: ...
Variant generation axes
(diversity dimensions within chosen family)
Invalidation conditions
(what would cause a pivot)
valid_until
(when does this strategy bet go stale? Tech landscape changes, new SoTA emerges)