Assumption Mapping & Hypothesis Testing
Frameworks for identifying, prioritizing, and testing product assumptions.
Riskiest Assumption Test (RAT)
Assumption Map
Desirability (Will they want it?)
| Assumption | Evidence For | Evidence Against | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Users want X] | [data] | [data] | High/Med/Low |
Viability (Will it work for the business?)
| Assumption | Evidence For | Evidence Against | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Users will pay $X] | [data] | [data] | High/Med/Low |
Feasibility (Can we build it?)
| Assumption | Evidence For | Evidence Against | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| [We can integrate with X] | [data] | [data] | High/Med/Low |
Riskiest Assumption to Test Next
Assumption: [The one with highest risk + least evidence] Test: [Cheapest way to validate/invalidate] Success Criteria: [Specific threshold] Timeline: [Days/weeks]
Product Hypothesis Format
Hypothesis: [Short name]
We believe that [building this feature/making this change] For [target user segment] Will result in [expected outcome/behavior change] We will know we're right when [measurable success criteria]
Riskiest Assumption
[The assumption that if wrong, invalidates the hypothesis]
Minimum Test
[Cheapest/fastest way to validate]
- Type: [Prototype/Fake door/Concierge/etc]
- Duration: [X days/weeks]
- Sample size: [N users]
Decision Criteria
- Ship if: [specific threshold met]
- Iterate if: [mixed signals, specify]
- Kill if: [specific threshold not met]
Test Types by Assumption
Assumption Type Test Method Timeline
Desirability Fake door, landing page Days
Usability Prototype testing Days
Value Concierge MVP Weeks
Feasibility Technical spike Days
Viability Pre-sales, LOIs Weeks
Assumption Prioritization
Priority = Risk Level × Impact if Wrong × Cost to Test (inverse)
Test assumptions that are:
-
High risk (least evidence)
-
High impact (invalidates entire concept)
-
Low cost to test (quick experiments)