Unknown: Strategy Blind Spot Analysis

Surface hidden assumptions and strategic blind spots using the Known/Unknown 4-quadrant lens.

When to Use

• Strategy documents that look coherent but are hard to execute

• Plans with unclear risk boundaries

• Decision discussions where the team asks: "What are we missing?"

For requirement clarification, use vague. For content/form leverage decisions, use metamedium.

Core Lens

Classify insights into four quadrants:

• Known Knowns (KK): validated facts and working mechanisms

• Known Unknowns (KU): explicit uncertainties requiring experiments

• Unknown Knowns (UK): existing but underused assets/capabilities

• Unknown Unknowns (UU): unobserved risks requiring early-warning antennas

Default resource split (adjustable):

• KK 60%: systematize

• KU 25%: experiment

• UK 10%: leverage

• UU 5%: install antennas

Non-Negotiable Interaction Rule

Use AskUserQuestion for each round (R1/R2/R3). Ask with hypothesis options, not open free-text prompts.

3-Round Pattern

• R1 (3-4 questions): broad scan across all quadrants

• R2 (2-3 questions): drill into weakest link discovered in R1

• R3 (2-3 questions, optional): execution detail for top priorities

Cap total questions at 7-10.

Protocol

Phase 1: Intake

If a doc is provided, extract goals, assumptions, dependencies, and unstated constraints.

Phase 2: Context Sweep

Scan project context (README, plans, prior notes) to identify likely UK candidates (assets the team has but is not using).

Phase 3: Draft + R1

Create a provisional 4-quadrant draft, then run R1 AskUserQuestion (single batched call).

Phase 4: R2 Deepening

Design R2 only from R1 responses:

• Compound bottlenecks

• Surprising answers

• "Other" selections

Phase 5: R3 Execution (optional)

If needed, confirm owner, timeline, stop-criteria, and promotion conditions.

Phase 6: Playbook Output

Produce a structured playbook using references/playbook-template.md .

Rules

• Hypotheses as options

• R2 derives from R1, R3 derives from R2

• Include both what to start and what to stop

• Every KU gets promotion condition and kill condition

• Prefer small experiments over large speculative plans

Additional Resources

• references/question-design.md

• references/playbook-template.md